Thanks to the pandemic, the American summer road trip tradition is alive and well despite historically high gas prices, bringing good news for Orlando’s tourism-dependent economy, travel analysts say.
With the cost of flights also high — and cancellations surging — drivers are still planning to hit the road after months of postponing travel plans because of COVID-19, although they might cut back on spending for other areas of their trips, national surveys showed.
But the flow of vacationers could slow in the coming months as growing numbers of them become more reluctant to travel because of rising prices.
Visit Orlando has seen a steady flow of visitors but some cutbacks on spending while they are here, President and CEO Casandra Matej said.
“Consumers still travel but travel differently – stay closer to home, adjust length of stay, adjust accommodation level, spend less on entertainment and dining,” she said, echoing trends observed by other analysts and the American Automobile Association.
Typically, gas price hikes do not change hotel booking rates, Matej said. During 2008’s historically high gas prices, Visit Orlando only saw domestic visitor rates fall by 1%.
This summer’s advance hotel booking rates are above 90% of 2019 levels before the pandemic, she said.
The Fourth of July historically generates the most traffic of the summer holidays, according to the AAA. Around 2.3 million Floridians are expected to travel by car in levels unseen since 2001, and Orlando is the holiday’s top U.S. destination.
Tourism market research firm Longwoods International found that 28% of Americans plan to visit an amusement or theme park during their next trip, up 4% from last June.
During a recent conference, NBCUniversal CEO Jeff Shell said Universal’s domestic theme parks have seen no decline in attendance yet due to inflation and increased gas prices, even with many tourists arriving by car.
“If you landed from Mars and looked at our numbers for our theme parks and tried to discern if there was inflation or not, there’s no impact on our business,” he said. “But I think going forward, obviously, at some point, you would expect to see some impact.”
Orlando’s attractions could see an influx of locals and people visiting from within a few hours’ drive this summer as high travel prices encourage “staycationing,” said Alan Fyall, an associate dean at the University of Central Florida’s Rosen College of Hospitality Management.
This mirrors a trend seen earlier in the pandemic when travel restrictions kept tourists closer to home.
“A lot of the income levels in this part of the world aren’t necessarily super high, so you stay local,” he said. “… And those that really, really want to come here from afar, they will come here anyway.”
A survey conducted by FamilyDestinationsGuide.com found that because of high gas prices, Florida drivers reported they would cut the length of their road trips by an average of 293 miles to drive just 275 miles round-trip.
Longwoods International’s research shows that more than 91% of people have travel plans within the next six months, but travelers are reporting mounting anxiety about rising gas prices.
Its most recent survey showed 41% of people said gas prices would greatly affect their travel plans within the next six months, up 9% from May.
Amir Eylon, Longwoods International’s president and CEO, said these patterns are similar to what analysts tracked during comparable periods of gas price spikes, such as after 9/11 and the Great Recession.
“The big question mark is, what happens after the summer travel season? What’s the fall and holiday travel season going to look like if these inflationary pressures such as high gas prices, high airfares, etc. stay elevated?” he said. “That’s going to be the level of concern there. Will that slow the industry’s recovery?”
While most Floridians are still going forward with summer travel plans, AAA spokesman Mark Jenkins said a small percentage is being priced out.
A mid-May AAA survey found 18% of residents canceled travel plans after gas prices topped $4.50 per gallon and 28% said they would cancel plans if prices climbed above $5, which the national average, but not Florida’s, has reached.
“This fuel market remains extremely unstable, and things can change very quickly,” he said this week as gas prices declined an average of 7 cents. “It’s looking less likely that the state average will surpass $5 a gallon, but the driving season is young.”
A national survey conducted by travel blog The Vacationer found about 55% of American adults, or 143 million people, plan to travel over Independence Day. Driving was the most popular travel method.
Around half of those surveyed said the price of gas affected their plans for the holiday. Still, 52% planned to road trip during that weekend, with 25% traveling over 100 miles away from home.
The Vacationer co-founder Eric Jones said high demand for travel has remained consistent even as gas prices have increased in recent weeks. More people reported they planned to travel for Memorial Day and the Fourth of July this year than in 2021, and people are increasingly choosing driving over flying.
“There’s still kind of a COVID build-up, like an itch that they’re still trying to scratch,” Jones said.
With the cost of travel up across the board, the same vacation could cost between 25% and 50% more than it did last year, according to Forbes.
Lodging makes up a large portion of vacationers’ budgets. Florida tourism officials say hotel room rates are rising statewide, with demand particularly high in Orlando.
Experts say the best way to save money is to prepare in advance, comparison shop and make backup plans due to high demand.
Travelers can find plenty of budget-friendly vacation options if they follow that advice, Jones said.
“Go out there and have fun, because that’s what it’s all about,” he said. “You don’t have to spend a crazy amount of money to go travel.”
krice@orlandosentinel.com and @katievrice on Twitter
