In its final days, the Pac-12 produced an upside surprise that will assist those entities involved in the conference’s possible resurrection.
Upsets in the conference tournament put the Pac-12 in position to collect four bids to the NCAA Tournament when the field is announced Sunday.
Three different paths to the Madness unfolded:
— Top-seeded Arizona and No. 2 Washington State lost in the semifinals Friday night but are locks for the NCAA’s at-large field.
— Colorado likely moved off the bubble and into the tournament with its victory over the Cougars.
— Oregon earned the conference’s automatic bid by winning the final Pac-12 tournament, defeating UCLA, Arizona and Colorado on the way to the championship.
From two NCAA berths when the event began to four when it ended — the results aligned perfectly for a conference that underwhelmed throughout the regular season.
The bid total also means more cash for Washington State and Oregon State, the two schools not entering other leagues this summer.
As the sole members of the Pac-12 starting July 1, with hopes to eventually rebuild the conference, the Cougars and Beavers will be entitled to all NCAA Tournament revenue generated by outbound schools.
Every game played is worth approximately $2 million over time to that team’s conference. Even if all four Pac-12 entries lose their NCAA openers, WSU and OSU are guaranteed $8 million. Each victory would add $2 million to their future revenue total. (The money earned this month will be paid out over six years starting next spring.)
So it seems a second twist materialized in Las Vegas this week: The Cougars won by losing.
With the Pac-12 expected to receive four bids on Selection Sunday, what else should we expect when the tournament field is revealed at 3 p.m. on CBS?
Pac-12 seeds
Arizona’s slim chance to earn the No. 1 seed in the West seemingly vanished altogether when the Wildcats lost to Oregon on Friday night as double-digit favorites. But a stout resume constructed in November and December will prevent the Wildcats from falling below the No. 2 line. They are headed to Salt Lake City for the opening weekend and, with two victories, would advance to the Sweet 16 in Los Angeles.
Washington State seems destined for a No. 6 or 7 seed, and the difference is significant. As a No. 7, the Cougars would be paired with the No. 2 in the second round, a more challenging matchup than facing the No. 3 seed. (That No. 2 seed would not be Arizona; the Pac-12 teams will be placed in different regions, per selection procedures.)
There are several issues at play for Colorado, with participation atop the list. Our hunch is the Buffaloes not only make the at-large field but avoid the First Four games thanks to a double-shot of propellant: Their victory over WSU on Friday night; and a stellar finish with eight wins in their final nine games.
Oregon, which would not have made the NCAAs through the at-large pool, will receive a double-digit seed.
The No. 1 seeds
If Arizona is on the outside looking in, which teams are on the inside?
Houston, Purdue and Connecticut are locks for the top line, with North Carolina favored for the final No. 1 seed after losses this weekend by contenders Tennessee and Arizona.
Houston, which won the Big 12 regular season title, was the best bet to receive the No. 1 overall seed until the Cougars lost badly (to Iowa State) in the tournament championship.
As a result, Connecticut, the defending national champion, becomes the frontrunner for the distinction.
The western landscape
The Pacific and Mountain Time Zones will have modest representation in the 68-team field, with the Mountain West accounting for an outsized percentage of the participants.
The MW should collect six bids on Sunday: San Diego State, Utah State, Boise State, Nevada and Colorado State are on solid ground for at-large selections while New Mexico won four games in four days to claim the tournament title and automatic bid.
Look for four teams from the Pac-12, as mentioned previously, and two from the WCC: Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga. Both teams project as mid-level seeds.
Also, don’t forget Brigham Young, which navigated the Big 12 schedule impressively and should receive a No. 5 or 6 seed.
The Big West, Big Sky and Western Athletic Conference will send one team each.
One thing you won’t find in the NCAA Tournament: The four California schools that call the Pac-12 home (for a few more months).
UCLA, USC, Cal and Stanford were eliminated from the at-large pool weeks ago, then bounced from the Pac-12 tournament.
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on Twitter/X: @WilnerHotline
*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.
