If it were only so easy as having Brandon Aiyuk play at his fifth-year option rate of just over $14 million, then the 49ers could take a big step toward getting their financial house in order heading into another run for a Super Bowl.
But Aiyuk is not going to do that any more than Nick Bosa was going to play for $17.5 million a year ago on his fifth-year option, which means the 49ers will be negotiating a big-money extension with one of their best players. It’s why there is rampant speculation — a small amount merited, much of it social media-fueled nonsense — that the 49ers are open to trading either Aiyuk or fellow wideout Deebo Samuel.
The 49ers made Bosa the highest-paid non-quarterback in the NFL with a five-year extension worth $170 million with $122.5 million in guarantees and an average salary per year (APY) of $34 million. Aiyuk won’t get that, but the 49ers and every other team have a ceiling in mind when it comes to putting together a roster puzzle.
Recent deals with wideouts Michael Pittman of Indianapolis and Calvin Ridley likely have Aiyuk tantalizingly close to that limit. Pittman, who was originally given the franchise tag from the Colts, agreed to a three-year $70 million deal which works out to $23.3 million APY. Ridley, who signed with Tennessee after a strong year with Jacksonville, got $92 million over four years and $23 million.
Here is how the three fared in 2023:
Aiyuk: 75 receptions, 1,342 yards, seven touchdowns, 17.9 yards per catch.
Pittman: 109 receptions, 1,152 yards, four touchdowns, 10.7 yards per catch.
Ridley: 76 receptions, 1,016 yards, eight touchdowns, 13.4 yards per catch.
Aiyuk is younger than both at age 25. and is still an ascending player. (Ridley is 29, Pittman 26). He’s the most explosive of the three and put together a highlight reel that included one of the plays of the year against Detroit in the NFC Championship Game with a 51-yard catch that hit the facemask of Kindle Vildor. His tape includes downfield blocking the likes of which the 49ers demand but you don’t often see elsewhere.
If all three were on the open market, it wouldn’t be close. It’s Aiyuk going away. The 49ers surely realized they would have to come in over $20 million in APY on an extension, but are they willing to go to $25 million or more? That’s probably what it’s going to cost.
The following are the five NFL wideouts with APYs of $25 million or more according to OverTheCap.com: Tyreek Hill of Miami ($30 million), Davante Adams of the Raiders ($28 million), Cooper Kupp of the Rams ($26.7 million) and A.J. Brown of the Eagles ($25 million). All are between 27 and 31 years old.
The 49ers can pay it, cap be damned. The salary cap went up to $255.4 million this year, which helps. Quarterback Brock Purdy is bound by the collective bargaining agreement to play his third season under the terms of the deal he received as the final pick in the 2022 NFL draft at a salary of $1.1 million before being eligible for his own extension. As for the rest of the cap, Fred Warner George Kittle, Javon Hargrave and Kyle Juszczyk have all reportedly agreed to restructures so they’re clearing the decks for putting together the roster.
The truth of it is, getting Aiyuk aboard with an extension will likely decrease his cap number from $14.1 million this season because the bonus money will be prorated and the first-year salary will be low. The problem will be in future years when the bill comes due for Purdy.
As general manager John Lynch directs Paraag Marathe in assembling a salary structure, there’s another thing to consider. The 49ers are already paying Samuel an APY of $23.850 million on an extension negotiated after the 2022 season that wasn’t all hearts and flowers. Samuel missed all of the offseason, removed 49ers logos from his social media and didn’t sign until Aug. 1. And although Samuel ultimately got paid, he had a so-so season in which he said he was “awful” in part because he wasn’t in top shape.
Samuel mostly escaped criticism for this until coach Kyle Shanahan called him in and provided video evidence. Samuel rebounded somewhat last season and was even named a team captain. But the fact remains that Samuel will never approach his 2021 numbers again and no team in the NFL will come close to tying up somewhere near $50 million APY for two receivers.
And that’s not even factoring in running back Christian McCaffrey, who doesn’t reach a void year until 2026 at an APY of $16 million and is the reigning NFL Offensive Player of the Year (translation — most valuable non-quarterback). Running backs aren’t rewarded in the current pay scale hierarchy, but if I’m McCaffrey’s agent, the circumstances are unique in that he’s almost as valuable as a receiver as a runner and he’s no worse than No. 2 on the offensive pecking order behind Purdy.
It’s a lot to consider, especially considering the 49ers like to say they’re positioning their salary structure for the future as well as the present.
Don’t be surprised if the amount of time it takes to figure out what to pay Aiyuk drags on until August or later as the 49ers gear up for 2024.
As for what the 49ers will do in terms of cap structure if Purdy has another year resembling 2023, that’s a dilemma to solve a year from now and one of those problems any team would love to have.
