The Four Habits of Highly Effective March Madness Teams

As it turns out, however, the biggest underdogs and the clearest title contenders in this year’s edition of March Madness share a handful of characteristics that make them dangerous in single-elimination tournaments. They have veteran starting fives. They hog possessions by grabbing rebounds and forcing turnovers. They can knock down 3-pointers—but aren’t overly reliant on doing so. And they give their opponents headaches on defense.

Anyone who fills out a March Madness bracket will likely value some of these traits. Statistics guru Ken Pomeroy’s rankings happen to give priority to teams with all of the aforementioned characteristics. His metric also has a pretty good track record for predicting champions: In 17 of the last 20 NCAA tournaments, the champion was a team that finished the regular season inside the top six of Pomeroy’s rankings.

All six of the teams that finished the regular season in the top six of Pomeroy’s ranking are moving on to the Sweet 16. In order they are Houston, Alabama, UCLA, Connecticut, Texas and Tennessee.

The list is a bit surprising given that both the Huskies and Volunteers ended up as No. 4-seeds while two of the teams earning No. 1 seeds in their regions, Purdue and Kansas, have already gone home. But as the first weekend of the 2023 tournament showed, there was a clear reason why the Boilermakers and defending champion Jayhawks were vulnerable.

In a season marked by parity, Purdue held the No. 1 spot in the national polls during the regular season longer than any other team. But they never regained top status after a February skid during which turnovers spiked and 3-point shooting fell off. That stretch exposed a clear weakness in coach Matt Painter’s system: Even when National Player of the Year favorite Zach Edey scored a double-double, wins were heavily dependent on whether the Boilermakers’ freshmen guards hit threes.

That’s what doomed Purdue in the first round against No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson, a matchup that pitted the tallest team in Division I basketball against the shortest. It didn’t matter that the Knights’ guards could barely see over Edey’s belly button—they generated more possessions through steals. Unlike Purdue, whose players attempted a 3-pointer on half of their shots but made only 19% of them, Fairleigh Dickinson’s shot diet was much more balanced. The Knights shot from beyond the arc about a third of the time but netted two more than their opponent despite attempting three fewer 3-pointers.

Even though Edey is a junior, the group surrounding him is young. Fairleigh Dickinson, on the other hand, starts three upperclassmen who all have NCAA tournament experience, albeit from the Division II level at St. Thomas Aquinas.

Fairleigh Dickinson saw its own tournament dream end on Sunday night with a 78-70 loss to Florida Atlantic.

Kansas was another team felled in part by its inexperience and lack of depth. The Jayhawks won the 2022 title, but the players who accounted for 74% of points scored last season either graduated or went to the NBA.

To make matters worse, Kansas was also thinned by injuries down the stretch. Coach Norm Roberts, himself filling in as Bill Self recovers from heart surgery, was forced to rely heavily on his bench on Saturday. In the end, they lost to Arkansas 72-71 to become the sixth consecutive champion to lose before the Sweet 16.

One of the reasons why it is so hard to repeat is that cutting down the nets usually takes a veteran lineup. But the thing about veteran lineups is that they don’t last, even in this age where it seems like everyone is using a bonus year of eligibility gained during the pandemic to play for five seasons, because all upperclassmen eventually graduate. There’s some hope for roster continuity if a team starts a lot of underclassmen, but starting freshmen and sophomores usually are good enough to leave campus early for the professional ranks and cause the same degree of roster turnover as graduating seniors.

That’s not the case at Texas, which ranks highest among surviving teams in experience according to Pomeroy. Nor is it the case at Princeton, a 15-seed with a roster stocked with seniors who stuck around even though the Ivy League didn’t compete during their sophomore year in 2020-21. The Tigers start three seniors, one junior and one freshman.

Experience isn’t the only thing the Tigers have in common with some of the NCAA tournament’s top contenders. Princeton shoots solidly from long-range, making over 33.4% of their 3-pointers, but don’t rely on getting points from beyond the arc too much.

No team excels in this area quite as much as Alabama. A self-professed analytics guru, coach Nate Oats identifies the most efficient shots on the court (layups and 3-pointers) and his teams take them almost exclusively. It’s a winning formula: Every team in the Sweet 16 save Princeton ranks in the top 70 in offensive efficiency, according to Pomeroy. (The Tigers are 100th.) Efficient offense has been a hallmark of the Crimson Tide during Oats’ previous seasons in Tuscaloosa, but this is the best defensive team he’s had in four seasons.

Miami also operates with ruthless efficiency and combines it with NCAA tournament experience, having danced to the Elite Eight in 2022. The Hurricanes rank 12th in offensive efficiency and are sharpshooters from the 3-point line. Against Indiana on Sunday night, Miami shot 39% from deep and out-rebounded the Hoosiers 48-31 en route to a 85-69 win.

Rebounding is another key trait of March Madness winners. Of the 16 remaining teams, 12 rank in the top 100 of offensive rebounding percentage. The reason is simple: offensive rebounds can lead to second-chance points while defensive boards deny opponents of just that.

The best team in the 2023 field on the glass is No. 1 Houston. Trailing Auburn on Saturday night, the Cougars were able to rally in part because they grabbed 18 defensive rebounds to the Tigers’ six in the second half. That helped Houston keep its dreams of making it to a hometown Final Four alive.

Strong defenses are another unifying trait of this year’s survivors. UCLA is one of the most efficient teams in this category in 2023, and so is Tennessee, which held Duke to 52 points on Saturday—tied for the lowest the Blue Devils have ever scored in the NCAA tournament.

Perhaps the most surprising member of Pomeroy’s top six is UConn, which advanced to the Sweet 16 with a win over Saint Mary’s on Sunday.

The Huskies run the third-most efficient offense in Division I and are the top offensive rebounding team in Division I. They dominated a Rick Pitino-coached Iona in the first round before beating Saint Mary’s for back-to-back wins over teams whose mascots are the Gaels.

The win over Iona convinced Pitino that the Huskies might have what it takes.

“Win it all. Take it home. You’ve got the team to do it," he told coach Dan Hurley in the hallway following the game.