The Post’s Mark W. Sanchez previews the NL Central.
1. Cincinnati Reds
O/U wins: 82.5
Key player: Frankie Montas. The Reds could charge to the division title if Montas looks like the pitcher he was in Oakland. They would be in some trouble if he looks like the pitcher he was in The Bronx. The righty made just eight starts in a season and a half with the Yankees, injuries ruining his stint, but his potential still led him to a $16 million pact. Can he be the ace and leader of a young, talented rotation?
Player who’ll need to step up: Elly De La Cruz. Can maybe the most exhilarating player in baseball become one of the most excellent? The 22-year-old astounds with his power, both in his bat and throwing arm from shortstop. Seemingly every game of his rookie year brought a new highlight, but more whiffs, too, striking out 144 times in 98 games. After an up-and-down, .710-OPS debut, can he begin to tap into his superstar potential?
Name you’ll get to know: Rhett Lowder. The seventh-overall selection in the 2023 draft has yet to make his official, professional debut — and yet, the expectation is he could sail through the system quickly. Lowder, 22, a hard-throwing righty from Wake Forest, has an excellent changeup and could quickly join a youth movement the Reds are featuring in the majors.
Biggest question mark: The talent is there, but is it ready to take the next step? If De La Cruz, Spencer Steer and Hunter Greene perform to their All-Star upsides, the Reds would coast to the postseason. Noelvi Marte’s PED suspension, though, is an early setback, and there is concern over Matt McLain’s shoulder.
How it’ll go down: Ability alone can ensure the Reds are in contention in September. If enough pitching pans out, it’s not hard to envision their first division crown since 2012.
2. Chicago Cubs
O/U wins: 84.5
Key player: Shota Imanaga. The Cubs’ lineup and rotation are nice, if not overwhelming, and the biggest X factor might be the 30-year-old lefty brought in from Japan. Imanaga, who essentially replaces Marcus Stroman and will pair with Justin Steele atop the rotation, pitched to a 2.66 ERA with the Yokohama Bay Stars last season and could change the complexion of the Cubs’ 2024 if he proves to be an ace.
Player who’ll need to step up: How about a manager who needs to step up? Craig Counsell hit free agency, flirted with several teams and watched as the Cubs fired David Ross to make space for him in the dugout. Counsell, long the steady hand leading the Brewers, is known for maximizing talent. From Cody Bellinger to Seiya Suzuki to Kyle Hendricks to Adbert Alzolay, there should be enough talent for Counsell to work with.
Name you’ll get to know: Michael Busch. The former Dodgers top prospect was blocked with LA and shipped to the Cubs this offseason. The infielder — with history at first, second and third base — should have an easier time finding the majors in Chicago. If his bat makes as much noise as it did last season (1.049 OPS in 98 Triple-A games), his time would come quickly.
Biggest question mark: The Cubs should be able to hit, but how strong is the rotation? There are questions all over the starting staff, from workload issues for Steele (coming off a career high in innings) to Imanaga to the up-and-down Hendricks to the already-banged-up Jameson Taillon.
How it’ll go down: After missing the postseason by a single game last year, the Cubs have probably improved this offseason — but so has every team in a division that should be competitive. The race should be tight, and the Cubs hope Counsell could be the difference-maker.
3. St. Louis Cardinals
O/U wins: 85.5
Key player: Paul Goldschmidt. Is he more the 2022 NL MVP or the good-but-perhaps-fading first baseman he played like last season? The seven-time All-Star saw his OPS drop by 171 points last season, a concerning trend for a slugger who is now 36. The Cardinals probably cannot afford for him to simply be a solid hitter.
Player who’ll need to step up: Miles Mikolas. You can pick any 30-something Cardinals starter and insert him here, but we’ll take a talented arm who posted the fifth-worst qualified ERA in baseball last season (4.78). Mikolas is 35 and was an All-Star as recently as 2022, but there is wonder whether his best days are over.
Name you’ll get to know: Masyn Winn. The 22-year-old likely will be the everyday shortstop for the Cardinals after a slow start (.172 average) in his first 37 games as a major leaguer last season. The No. 1 prospect in the organization, Winn has crushed minor league pitching (including 18 homers in 105 Triple-A games last season) and is known for a cannon arm that has reached 100 mph.
Biggest question mark: Age — all over the roster, but in the rotation particularly. The youngest starter when all are healthy will be 32-year-old Steven Matz. Sonny Gray (34) already will miss Opening Day because of a hamstring issue. Mikolas (35), Kyle Gibson (36) and Lance Lynn (36) round out the group. In an era when the game is getting younger, faster and more athletic, can the old guys make a comeback?
How it’ll go down: Coming off their first last-place finish since 1990, the Cardinals added a ton of pitching and are mostly counting upon bounce-backs from their offense. The division is weak enough for the Cardinals to hang around, but it would be a surprise if a fragile rotation both stays healthy and performs.
- AL East preview: Where are the Yankees projected to finish?
- NL East preview: Do the Mets have a chance?
- AL Central preview: Detroit’s youth movement is here
- NL Central preview: Reds make a sneaky contender case
- AL West preview: Who wins out in the Astros-Rangers battle?
- NL West preview: Can anyone catch the Dodgers?
4. Milwaukee Brewers
O/U wins: 76.5
Key player: Rhys Hoskins. The Brewers were middle of the pack in offense last season, buoyed by an excellent year from William Contreras and a bounce-back performance from Christian Yelich. The largest hope for the Brewers to take a leap forward this season resides with Hoskins, a slugger who blasted 30 homers in 2022 — but missed all of last season with a torn ACL.
Player who’ll need to step up: DL Hall. It might be unfair to expect too much from a young prospect learning his way with a second team, but a Brewers rotation that has lost Corbin Burnes (trade), Brandon Woodruff (injury) and Adrian Houser (trade) needs to turn upside into results. Hall, the jewel of the Burnes trade, is expected to begin the season in the rotation.
Name you’ll get to know: Jackson Chourio. The organization’s best prospect and among the most promising in the game is just 20 but already has signed an $82 million pact that will keep him in Milwaukee for at least eight years. Originally a shortstop and now an outfielder, Chourio hit 22 home runs and stole 44 bases in a 2023 minor league season that finished at Triple-A. Chourio broke camp with the team and can help immediately.
Biggest question mark: Can the machine keep humming without its best parts? Milwaukee has made the playoffs in five of six seasons despite low payrolls and often low expectations. But a front office that is constantly trying to play for now and for later — which often means subtracting from current rosters to plan for future rosters — has torn down a rotation that was the Brewers’ best hope of contention. Can pitchers such as Freddy Peralta, Colin Rea, Jakob Junis, Hall and Wade Miley (when healthy) pick up the slack?
How it’ll go down: Whether they admit it or not, the Brewers have taken a step back. But Chourio, Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick and Brice Turang can provide plenty of hope for the future.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
O/U wins: 75.5
Key player: Oneil Cruz. About as electric as any player in baseball, Cruz’s 2023 season was over nearly as soon as it began. A fractured left fibula cost the shortstop his year after just nine games. The 25-year-old, who has generational tools, has enjoyed a monstrous spring training. Even if the Pirates are not good, a leap from Cruz would make the season palatable.
Player who’ll need to step up: Henry Davis. The No. 1 pick in the 2021 draft has not been the immediate star the Pirates hoped. Davis was seen as a bat-first catcher, but his defense has inspired enough questions that he debuted in the majors last year as a nearly exclusive right fielder — and in his first shot against major league pitching, he posted a .653 OPS in 62 games. Davis is out to prove that he can both catch and hit at the big-league level.
Name you’ll get to know: Paul Skenes. The No. 1 pick of last year’s draft touched Double-A last season despite pitching for LSU just a few months earlier. The hard-throwing 21-year-old did not break camp with the Pirates, but it shouldn’t be long before one of the best starting prospects in baseball gets his chance.
Biggest question mark: Can the Pirates be competitive enough to avoid another trade-deadline sell-off? Free-agent acquisitions such as Aroldis Chapman, Domingo German and Michael A. Taylor sure look like buy-low acquisitions whom the Pirates hope they can flip in July, unless a young core that features Cruz, Davis, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds and Mitch Keller keeps Pittsburgh in contention.
How it’ll go down: The Pirates probably don’t have enough pitching to hang in the division and clearly will not use money to plug those pitching holes, but a successful season would be one that features plenty of successful debuts from a starry prospect base.
