Crude oil showing signs of a breakout as it tops $80. What traders say happens next

Published Sun, Mar 17 20247:38 AM EDT

U.S. crude oil futures might be showing signs of a break out after topping $80 this week, though some analysts caution against reading too much into the move. The West Texas Intermediate contract for April gained 3.8% last week to settle at $81.04 a barrel. The move higher came after the International Energy Agency forecast a crude supply deficit this year and Ukraine attacked several oil refineries in Russia. "Oil is finally catching up to the supply and demand situation but it is still ignoring the geopolitical issues that could push it a lot higher if gets worse," said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak. WTI's performance Friday validates bullish developments from a couple weeks ago, according Tom Fitzpatrick, managing director of global market insights with R.J. O'Brien. As February came to a close, WTI tested $80 a barrel and booked a "bullish outside" week in which prices fall below the previous week's low but then shoot above the high. U.S. crude performed the same pattern this week, wiping out and closing above last week's intraday high of $80.67. Brent performed the same move, settling at $85.34 on Friday. Fitzpatrick said in a note Friday that it is "impossible" to not look at the move as "unequivocally bullish." Maley said the break above $80 a barrel for WTI is "very important," but it needs to hold next week to get confirmation that it is not a "head fake," he said. U.S. crude has also held above its 200-day moving average of $78.13 a barrel almost all month, he said. XLE YTD mountain Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund year to date. Energy stocks are also starting to catch up with oil prices, with the Energy Select Sector SDPR Fund (XLE) up 9.21% for the year, while WTI is up 13%, the analyst said. "You can see how energy stock investors are now believing this move in oil so that's another reason to think that it's for real," Malley said. The analyst views the 200-day moving average as WTI's support level and $84 a barrel as the new resistance level. 'Benign price' Other analysts disagree with those bullish assessments. Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy with TD Securities, said Friday's price action is not particularly meaningful. Melek sees risk on the horizon if Saudi Arabia grows tired of other crude producing countries riding on their production cuts. OPEC and its allies have slashed production by 2.2 million barrels per day through at least the second quarter with the bulk coming from Saudi. As the market enters a supply deficit this year, Riyadh could start rolling barrels back on the market, Melek said. Brent between $80 and $85 a barrel is a sweet spot for the Saudis because those prices satisfy their budget requirements without being so high that it helps drive the transition away from oil, he said. There also does not appear to be much upside from the U.S. economy or Federal Reserve policy on interest rates, Melek said. "I suspect these rallies will most likely not have too much staying power," Melek said. "We're still faced with a soft landing in the United States. The U.S. Fed pivot is pretty much priced in." Carter Worth, founder and CEO of Worth Charting, also does not view the move about $80 as meaningful. "$80 is just sort of a benign price. It's not particularly high, it's not particularly low," Worth said. "Sometimes things are where they belong."