LOS ANGELES — Well, he should know. He built it that way.
“I mean, it’s going to be top heavy,” Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said of a lineup topped by three former MVPs. “But, no, I think we’re going to have length to our lineup. We’re looking at a 20-game sample. I’m confident that these guys will hit. Obviously at some point we’ll make decisions and figure it out as we go.”
As it has gone over the first month of the season, the Dodgers’ lineup has been bottom-less – and not in a good way.
The trio at the top of the lineup has produced as advertised. The Dodgers’ leadoff hitters (Mookie Betts) have a .347 average (second in MLB at the leadoff position) and 1.082 OPS (first) through 24 games. Those batting in the second spot (almost exclusively Shohei Ohtani) have produced a .368 average and 1.099 OPS, both best in the majors in the 2-hole. Even with Freddie Freeman’s recent slump (and slow-arriving power), the Dodgers’ No. 3 hitters have the third-best average in the majors (.281) and seventh-best OPS (.786).
Those top three spots have hit a combined .333 with 23 doubles, two triples and 12 home runs in the first 24 games of the season.
It slows down from there as you would expect. Their cleanup hitters (mostly Will Smith) have the second-best average (.326) and eighth-best OPS (.857). The hitters they’ve used in the fifth and sixth spots (primarily Max Muncy and Teoscar Hernandez in one order or the other) have been slightly above average – a .253 batting average (15th) and .804 OPS (seventh) in the fifth spot, a .231 average (ninth) and .715 OPS (11th) from the sixth hitters.
Then the offense drops off a cliff.
The seventh through ninth spots in the Dodgers’ lineup have individually been among the least offensive in MLB. Collectively, they have been dreadful – a .168 batting average with six doubles, five home runs and 25 RBIs. The bottom three spots have contributed 80 strikeouts to the team’s National League-leading total of 226.
“I think as far as the bottom of the order, people are trying to group them all,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said. “There’s probably six different guys that are in that mix.”
It’s actually eight. James Outman and Gavin Lux have been the most consistent presences in the bottom third of the lineup. Chris Taylor and Kiké Hernandez have received occasional playing time, Miguel Rojas and Austin Barnes even less frequently. Jason Heyward played just four games before going on the injured list. Andy Pages arrived just a week ago.
Of the four players who have played the most – Outman, Lux, Kiké Hernandez and Taylor – only Hernandez has an average over .180 (he’s at .200). Only Outman has an OPS of .500 (.566).
To analyze the bottomless lineup, Friedman agrees with Roberts that it has to be taken player by player.
“For sure,” he said.
There have been “a lot of positive signs” from Outman recently, he said.
“I think over the last seven to 10 days there have been some really good swings,” Friedman said. “Obviously some he has been rewarded for, some he has not. When he is stepping on balls to the opposite field, I think that’s a very good sign for where he’s at and he has a number of times and not been rewarded recently.”
The diagnosis for Lux’s .148 average to date leads back to the major knee injury he suffered in spring 2023, causing him to miss a full season.
“I think that’s part of it,” Roberts said. “He hadn’t played in a calendar year. He won’t use that as an excuse. But just kind of the compete mode, adjusting in between at-bats, taking an 0-fer, getting back in there and try to grind through it – that’s part of playing every day. He’s missed that.”
Lux did hit well in spring training, putting up a .297 batting average in Cactus League play (albeit with only one extra-base hit).
“In spring training there’s just not much scouting. That’s just the facts,” Roberts said. “Pitchers are trying to get their work in. In Gavin’s particular case, he was on the fastball. And they throw a lot of heaters in spring. And now they’re throwing all secondary pitches. That’s the cat-and-mouse in baseball.”
Taylor’s 2-for-38 start – including a stretch of 31 hitless at-bats – has been the most painful to watch. A swing he manufactured in order to make the big leagues has been prone to deep slumps in the past. Friedman acknowledged that fact but offered faint hope for a quick turnaround.
“CT is in a real funk,” Friedman said. “He is such a grinder and such a good baseball player and we all feel for him. What the exact right answer is, I don’t know. But I know that he is doing everything he can to get out of it. … I don’t know what the answer is.”
Taylor is in the third year of a four-year, $60 million contract extension he signed before the 2022 season. Friedman would not say how long the Dodgers can wait for Taylor to start producing offensively or whether there might be a breaking point when they have to give up.
“I have no idea how to answer that right now,” Friedman said. “I would bet that it’s a moot question, that he will grind and figure out a way out of this.”
For now, the bottom half of the Dodgers’ lineup has become a rally graveyard. With the top half of the lineup getting on base at a robust clip, the bottom half takes a good part of the blame for the team’s poor performance with runners in scoring position – a .254 average (19th in MLB), .716 OPS (15th) and 70 strikeouts (first).
“A decent chunk (of the blame),” Friedman agreed. “I also feel like there are (poor) stretches every year. Last year, we scored over 900 runs and we had this same conversation at one point. So I think some of it is the nature of the game, with the ups and downs. There’s a week period where we’re scorching hot with runners in scoring position and it feels like we’ll never lose a game. And then we’ll go a couple games where we’re not and it feels like we’re never going to win again.
“I think that is the nature of this sport. And for us, it’s about sifting through that as much as we can to make bets on what will happen in the future. We’re still collecting that information in order to make bets in the future – and I don’t just mean in ’25 and beyond. I mean, in August and September and so on.”
