Once the hotbed of offseason activity, the MLB Winter Meetings return this week for the first time in three years. All eyes will be on Farhan Zaidi and the Giants, with big pockets and ambitions, as the baseball world descends on San Diego.
The Rule 5 draft returns after a year hiatus, and MLB will hold its first ever lottery for the first six picks of June’s amateur draft (the Giants, by the way, have a 0.6% chance at the No. 1 selection). Barry Bonds (Sunday, via the Contemporary Era ballot) and Duane Kuiper (Wednesday, up for the Ford C. Frick Award) will also learn their Hall of Fame fates.
But the headlining act of these meetings figures to be Aaron Judge, whose decision — thought to be between the Giants and the Yankees — could come before the meetings wrap Thursday.
So far it has been a quiet offseason: out of 168 total free agents, 20 had signed as of Friday morning. Traditionally, the crown jewel of the class — Judge this year — can set off an avalanche of activity by signing and setting the market. At the last Winter Meetings in 2019, also hosted at San Diego’s Manchester Grand Hyatt, Gerritt Cole, Stephen Strasburg and Anthony Rendon signed deals totaling $824 million.
Industry speculation all offseason has suggested the Giants would be one of the most active teams this winter, and Zaidi has backed that up with his words. At last month’s GM meetings in Las Vegas, he told reporters, “from a financial standpoint, there’s nobody that would be out of our capability to meet what we expect the contract demands will be.”
The Giants currently have about $120 million committed to 2023, about $35 million shy of their Opening Day payroll last season and more than $100 million under the luxury tax threshold. They have numerous needs, after regressing by 26 wins and missing the playoffs, and are expected to be aggressive in addressing them.
In an anonymous ESPN survey of executives and insiders published this week, the Giants received the most votes in response to the question, “Which team (outside of yours) will make the biggest splash this offseason?” Good news: San Francisco was picked as a destination for each of the four top free-agent shortstops. Bad news: Most respondents predicted that Judge would stay in New York (and even the Dodgers garnered more votes than the Giants).
The hotel may want to keep one — or more — of its ballrooms reserved.
MLB Network insider Jon Morosi said he believes Judge will make his decision by the end of the meetings. Judge has a reported offer of $300 million over eight years on the table from the Yankees, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan, and paid his only known free-agent visit to San Francisco the week of Thanksgiving.
“I think that we are very close to 50-50,” Morosi said Thursday. “If the Giants really step up and get that (average annual value) close to $40 million a year, there’s a legitimate chance that Aaron Judge becomes a San Francisco Giant.”
While Judge, the reigning AL MVP, would represent the single most impactful addition the Giants could make this offseason, he can’t be the only one, after San Francisco dropped off from 107 wins to missing the postseason.
“I really believe that Aaron Judge won’t sign with the Giants unless there is a credible and actionable plan to put a winning team around him that can get to the postseason,” Morosi continued. “I don’t think Aaron Judge will take on all that pressure and expectation of going across the country if he looks at the roster and says, we’re gonna finish .500 and behind the Dodgers and Padres.”
With or without Judge, expect the Giants to be involved in the starting pitching market.
Zaidi has committed to adding “at least one,” after Carlos Rodón opted out. While the Giants would like to re-sign Rodón, they would have to break precedent under Zaidi, who hasn’t committed more than three years and $36 million to a player.
Rodón was already expected to demand a long term deal worth nine figures, and there are early signs that teams are placing a premium on starting pitching. Matthew Boyd, whom the Giants paid $5.2 million not to throw a pitch for them last season, signed with his former team, the Tigers, for $10 million; Mike Clevinger (7-7, 4.33) received $12 million from the White Sox.
After Zach Eflin signed Friday with Tampa Bay (three years, $40 million), more starters could come off the board in San Diego. New York Post insiders Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman both predicted that Justin Verlander would be the first major signing, though the Giants haven’t been connected to the AL Cy Young winner, who turns 40 next year.
Rodón and Jacob deGrom are also contenders to sign in San Diego, per ESPN’s Passan, potentially taking the top three starting pitchers off the market by the end of the meetings. Rodón has reportedly drawn interest from the Yankees and recently met with the Mets, whom MLB Network’s Morosi listed among the favorites to sign the hard-throwing lefty, along with the Rangers, Padres and Dodgers.
The most likely option for the Giants might be Japanese right-hander Kodai Senga. Per Morosi, San Francisco is “heavily involved” in the market for the 29-year-old Senga, who pairs a 100-mph fastball with a “ghost” splitter and posted a 1.89 ERA last season in Nippon Professional Baseball.
The rest of the position player market — the next tier of outfielders, such as Brandon Nimmo, and the quartet of All-Star shortstops — doesn’t appear to have gained as much momentum heading into San Diego. Perhaps that is why the Giants are reportedly checking in on Milwaukee’s Kolten Wong, a possible trade target at second base, per Ken Rosenthal.
Judge, the size of man he is, could make for an adequate dam. If he signs this week, it could break in a flood of activity.
