So I have a simple question for the San Francisco Giants:
What happens if Plan A(aron) doesn’t pan out?
What happens if the Yankees slugger doesn’t move West, becoming the biggest free agent signing in the Bay Area since Kevin Durant?
The Giants need to have a backup plan — a good one, an expensive one — if that happens, because this offseason must be transformative at the corner of Third and King.
I hope Judge comes to the Bay and brings that transformation. He’s everything the San Francisco Giants need.
He’s the kind of hitter that you can pencil into the middle of the lineup every day — no matter if there is a lefty or righty on the mound. He brings steady and often spectacular production. He’s a true everyday player, a pillar of the batting order, a superstar who can stem the Giants’ attendance issues, and he has a nice glove and strong arm in the outfield, too.
I want Judge on the Giants. You want Judge on the Giants. The Giants organization wants Judge on the Giants.
But there’s no guarantee Judge is going to be a Giant.
We should find out in the next week or so where the reigning American League MVP will play next season (and presumably, well beyond) and while there’s no indication that he won’t be moving to San Francisco, there’s also no indication that he will.
Judge could turn down the Giants and re-sign with the Yankees. It’s hardly a ridiculous concept that baseball’s biggest star (and I mean that literally — he’s huge) would stay with baseball’s biggest team.
He could also go off the board, too. Every team in baseball wants him — surely he’ll have more than two mega-contracts from which to choose. The Dodgers, the Mets, the Rangers, or the Red Sox could land Judge.
So what’s the Giants’ backup plan?
The Giants have been laser-focused on Judge, but if Judge shuns them, the free-agent market could move fast and leave San Francisco with nothing.
The Giants have found themselves in a situation like this in the past.
First, it was Giancarlo Stanton. The Giants had, at the ready, the prospects for a trade and big money for a new contract, only to be turned down by the slugger late in negotiations.
Then, when Bryce Harper became a free agent, the Giants made a push. The team had the cash to sign the superstar. He, too, turned San Francisco down.
Rejection happens. But what perturbed me is that In both situations, the Giants didn’t use that money or those prospects to bring in other players during those offseasons. San Francisco made all-or-nothing plays for both Stanton and Harper.
It can’t be that way with Judge.
The Giants’ front office has made it a policy that the team won’t spend for the sake of spending. But in the business world, if you don’t use your budget, you won’t receive that budget next year.
Meanwhile, the Giants’ payroll was middle-of-the-pack last season, well below what should be expected for a major-market team. Coincidence?
That cannot be the norm.
So if Judge says no — for whatever reason — the money the Giants earmarked for him must be spent.
If not Plan A, why not Plan C: Plan Carlos?
If the Giants can sign Carlos Correa and Carlos Rodón, that would provide the middle-of-the-lineup bat and top-of-rotation arm the team needs.
Or what about Xander Bogaerts and Jacob deGrom?
Trea Turner and Justin Verlander?
One could make the argument that, in a strictly on-the-field sense, singing two top free agents instead of the singular top player on the market would better help the Giants win.
Of course, this isn’t strictly an on-the-field matter.
This is about making a statement not only to the National League West, but to the rest of baseball, too. It’s about announcing to them and the Bay Area marketplace that the Giants are throwing their weight around again.
Landing one of the biggest names in baseball would be a great way to do that.
But that’s not the only way to do it.
And so long as the Giants do it this offseason — via signings, trades, or some mechanism they invented to bring Mike Trout to the Bay — this offseason will be a success.