Another week gone, and bettors have yet to see any NBA team separate itself from the pack. The Lakers seem like the surest thing on the board, but they blew a 14-point, fourth-quarter lead Monday night in a 115-113 loss to the Warriors.
As teams continue to soldier on in the new year, one seems to be flying under the radar of the betting market, one has bigger fish to fry and one player’s struggles do not seem to matter to the betting market. Let’s dive in:
Pacers’ improvements are legit
Coach Nate Bjorkgren has been able to unlock the potential Indiana frequently showed last season, thrusting the Pacers into the 21st century with a basketball style that reflects modern teams, not the midrange-loving style of the 1990s.
Indiana has gone from taking 34.0 percent of its attempts from midrange, fourth most in the league last season, to just 20.8 percent this season. The 2020-21 Pacers are living at the rim, taking the most shots within 4 feet (44.0 percent), and are averaging 5.5 more 3-point attempts per game than last year’s team.
The numbers are not eye-popping in offensive efficiency, at 111.7, per Cleaning The Glass. But I expect that as the season goes on, the Pacers’ offense will continue to improve.
Bjorkgren has also shown the same innovation as former boss Nick Nurse on defense, busting out the box-and-one against Golden State last week in an outright win as a 3-point underdog in the Bay Area.
Speaking of which, Indiana has four outright wins as an underdog, and that speaks to the market’s perception of this team. The Pacers are 4-1 SU and ATS when catching points and have covered 61.5 percent of their games. However, that profitable stretch could be ending as Myles Turner, a key part of the Pacers’ defensive prowess, is ailing with a hand injury that makes him day-to-day.
When this team is fully healthy, I believe it can compete with almost anybody in the Eastern Conference, which is why I played Indiana at 32-1 at Circa to win the East. This team has a high ceiling, and I am banking on the Pacers to reach it in a weak conference.
Bettors, beware of the Clippers
The only loss the Pacers suffered as underdogs came Sunday night, when the Clippers obliterated Indiana 129-96 at home for their fourth consecutive win. The Clippers have won five of six, but the spread results have not been there (3-3 ATS), mainly due to a defense that has been lackluster.
For bettors, this means the Clippers will be a highly volatile team not worth betting on for the time being. After starting the season 4-1 SU and ATS, the Clippers are just 6-3 SU and 4-5 ATS in January, with losses to Utah, San Antonio and Golden State.
Doncic MVP favorite despite struggles
The MVP betting market is fascinating because there is no way to really gauge how the odds should be set. It is based on narratives, anecdotal evidence and “SportsCenter” highlights. There is no stronger evidence of that than the current odds. William Hill, DraftKings, FanDuel, PointsBet and BetRivers all have Luka Doncic as the favorite at varying prices. Why? The Mavericks are treading water at 6-7, and Doncic has been uneven, to say the least.
The third-year star is averaging just 1.136 points per shot attempt, hitting only 29.7 percent of his 3-pointers and turning the ball over on 13.0 percent of his possessions. Does that sound like a player who has a 20 percent shot (+400) to win the Most Valuable Player Award? Just keep that in mind when you’re betting markets like MVP. More often than not, you’re not getting real value, especially at the top of the board.