At first glance, Saturday’s showdown between No. 11 Michigan and No. 13 Wisconsin (noon, FOX) at Camp Randall Stadium looks like the first step in the process of Big Ten cannibalization.
After all, the Wolverines and Badgers are among the five ranked teams in the conference, along with No. 6 Ohio State, No. 13 Penn State and No. 18 Iowa. Minnesota is the other unbeaten team in a league that might feature the most potholes when it comes to avoiding two losses and making the College Football Playoff.
Cannibalization, right? Well, not everybody sees it that way.
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"If you’re going to eliminate two teams that in fact don't really have aspirations for institutional goals to win the national championship, then it's just a meal," Big Ten Network analyst Gerry DiNardo said. "They're not eating themselves."
That might sound harsh for Michigan and Wisconsin fans hoping to make a first-time breakthrough to the Playoff, but that’s the Catch-22 with a conference that has missed it each of the last two seasons, despite the depth within the ranks.
The Big Ten is a tough road to get through. Michigan plays all four of the other ranked Big Ten teams, plus a nonconference game against No. 7 Notre Dame. Wisconsin faces Michigan, Ohio State and unranked Michigan State in crossover games. The Buckeyes, Nittany Lions and Hawkeyes all have three games against ranked opponents, and that’s with Minnesota, Michigan State, Nebraska and Northwestern on the fringe.
"The tougher the schedule, the harder it is to make the playoffs, and yet when the playoffs were formed the message was the tougher the schedule the more consideration," DiNardo said. "We can't control what the committee thinks."
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Under the current four-team Playoff setup, there is no easy fix. Big Ten champion Ohio State missed the Playoff each of the last two seasons, and the Big Ten champion hasn’t reached the postseason since Michigan State in 2015.
“You can make the argument the playoffs are going to be more difficult to make than a team in the SEC or ACC,” DiNardo said. “I think that is true under the present structure.”
DiNardo points to two driving factors for that: The first is the nine-game conference schedule, which the Big Ten moved to in 2017. You could argue that the extra crossover game — Iowa in 2017 and Purdue in 2018 — cost the Buckeyes a shot at the Playoff. DiNardo doesn’t believe the conference will move backward when it comes to conference scheduling.
“There is no chance we'll go back to eight games,” he said. “I think we'll go to 10 before we go to eight."
The other is the divisional imbalance between the Big Ten’s divisions. The Big Ten East champion has won the conference championship game the last five seasons, and DiNardo believes the Legends and Leaders divisions — despite the mockery for those names — had a better format for the conference.
What are the solutions? Playoff expansion — to either six or eight teams — would benefit the Big Ten, knowing the history of the final Playoff rankings.
| Ranks | Teams in the top eight |
| 2014 | No. 4 Ohio State, No. 8 Michigan State |
| 2015 | No. 3 Michigan State, No. 5 Iowa, No. 7 Ohio State |
| 2016 | No. 3 Ohio State, No. 5 Penn State, No. 6 Michigan, No. 8 Wisconsin |
| 2017 | No. 5 Ohio State, No. 6 Wisconsin |
| 2018 | No. 6 Ohio State, No. 7 Michigan |
Notice that four Big Ten East teams that made the top six (Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, Penn State) against just two from the Big Ten West (Wisconsin, Iowa).
Also notice there’s just one team in there for all five seasons.
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Ohio State has won three of the five Big Ten championships in the College Football Playoff era and made the playoff despite not making the Big Ten championship game in 2016. The Buckeyes are the only Big Ten team to win a national championship since the start of the Bowl Championship Series, and those came in 2002 and in the first year of the CFP in 2014.
This season, the Buckeyes are off to a 3-0 start and look like the team to beat in the Big Ten again.
"Based on three weeks, they are head and shoulders better than everybody else in the Big Ten conference," DiNardo said. "That is pure and simple."
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DiNardo also believes — all due respect to Michigan and Wisconsin — the Buckeyes are the only school capable of expecting national championships every year.
"I don't think it's institutionally expected for Wisconsin or Michigan to win a national championship," he said. "That's what I'm saying. There's one school in the Big Ten, institutionally, culturally, community-wise that's the expectation. There's only national championship-or-bust school in the Big Ten, and that's Ohio State."
DiNardo believes five SEC schools have that mentality, and that can be seen by looking at the last national championship for Alabama (2017), Auburn (2010), LSU (2007), Florida (2006) and Georgia (1980). Tennessee (1998) would not be in that class as of now.
"I'd say it's five to one," DiNardo said. "That's the answer to all these questions we are asking (about the Big Ten)."It is about the priority institutionally to win a national championship."
Compare the SEC to the Big Ten. Michigan (1997) is the last team from the conference to do it other than Ohio State. Nebraska (1997) and Penn State (1986) weren’t members of the conference the last time they won it all, and you must go all the way back to Michigan State (1965) to find another one.
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/list/college-football-national-champions-by-year-ap-coaches-poll-grantland-rice-trophy/2q0ubfwkuu3v10diz7198av6e/23
The SEC, which has all five of those schools in the top-10 right now, and that is true cannibalization.
So, what does the big Ten have?
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DiNardo sees the Big Ten in a scenario where the ranked-on-ranked games don’t have as much bearing on the Playoff picture — unless the Buckeyes are involved in those games.
"You could argue that it is the opposite of cannibalization because there is nothing lost regardless of who wins and loses the games," he said. "Nothing is lost. Now if Ohio State loses to Michigan State, Penn State or Michigan then loses a crossover, then the best team in the Big Ten has two losses. That's a whole different thing."
That might not go over well in Ann Arbor or Madison this weekend, given the near top-10 stage for the game, but those other schools must prove they can get to — and hang on to — that stage. Michigan State, the only team other than Ohio State to play in the Playoff, lost 38-0 to Alabama in the 2015 Cotton Bowl Classic.
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The Wisconsin-Michigan game might have an impact on the Big Ten race. DiNardo said the Playoff and national championship pictures, however, won’t be impacted as much by those ranked Big Ten matchups.
"If Wisconsin beats Michigan, then what happens? If Michigan beats Wisconsin, then what happens?" DiNardo said. "What have they done the last three or four years that makes us think they can win the national championship?"
In the end, that is what would lead to the same feeling as the SEC. Those five top-10 schools in the SEC are playing for Playoff bids. It remains the only conference to place two teams in the same season. For the last few years, the Big Ten has merely played for conference championships.
To get that next level, those teams need national championships. And they might need somebody other than Ohio State — say, Wisconsin or Michigan — to step up once and for all.
"If somebody else would win a national championship it would be good for the Big Ten, and the reason why would be with no change in priority institutionally they reach a very high level of success," DiNardo said. "For another team to do it, it's a bonus. Now, you're exceeding expectations."