MLB

Reds vs. Braves prediction: Bet on Trevor Bauer in this one

There was much hype around the Reds going into the 2020 season, and though it took awhile for things to click, they come into the postseason winners of 11 of their last 14 and have their ace on the mound for Game 1 against the Atlanta Braves on Wednesday.

Don’t let the 5-4 record be the only number you look at when evaluating Trevor Bauer, as he has been lights out for the Reds with a 1.73 ERA and 12.3 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s gone more than six innings in each of his past four starts with totals of four runs and four walks surrendered.

Bauer will be dueling Max Fried, who has put together a terrific season for the Braves, but there are injury concerns with him. Fried ended up missing nearly two weeks in early September due to an ankle injury. Since returning from the ailment, he has gone a combined six innings across two starts with three runs given up. Prior to the injury, he had a 6-0 record with a 1.98 ERA, going between five and 6²/₃ innings with three runs or fewer allowed in every start.

The Reds bullpen for the entirety of the season has been inferior to the Braves’, but over the past 30 days it’s as equal as it gets with the Reds bullpen ERA at 3.71 and the Braves at 3.70.

While the Reds’ own the league’s worst batting average, they make the hits they get count, ranking fourth in MLB in percentage of at-bats per home run, and that should power Bauer and company to victory.

The play: Reds, +115.